Nvidia Excludes China from Revenue Forecasts
Nvidia Expects Continued Chip Export Restrictions to China
Nvidia has made a strategic decision to exclude the Chinese market from its financial forecasts, signaling the company’s expectation that U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips will remain in place. CEO Jensen Huang revealed this significant shift in approach during a recent CNN interview.
A Permanent Shift in Revenue Projections
Huang emphasized that Nvidia isn’t anticipating any near-term reversal of the Trump administration’s chip export controls. “We’re not counting on policy changes,” Huang stated, describing any potential relaxation of restrictions as merely a “bonus” scenario.
The company’s caution follows the April introduction of licensing requirements for Nvidia’s H20 AI chips—the most advanced processors the company was permitted to sell to Chinese customers. These controls have already had measurable financial impacts:
- $8 billion projected Q2 revenue loss
- Significant restriction of China market access
- Need for revised global business strategy
The New Reality for Chipmakers
In its Q1 earnings call, Nvidia executives had already warned investors about the substantial revenue impact of these export controls. The company’s latest decision to formally exclude China from forecasts underscores how seriously it views these trade limitations.
When questioned about this strategic shift, Nvidia representatives directed attention to Huang’s previous earnings call comments regarding their China operations. The move reflects how geopolitical factors are increasingly shaping the semiconductor industry’s business strategies.
As AI chip technology continues to advance, Nvidia’s approach demonstrates how trade policies could reshape global tech supply chains and revenue streams in the coming years.